There are reasons to challenge the ‘they’re just better’ narrative used to justify overweight positions in American stocks
The risks of holding Treasuries are rising with increasing deficits
Economic data is already starting to surprise on the upside but markets are proving slow to accept this
Fed should look through any temporary weakness in price growth arising as supply chain distortions unwind
High short-term interest rates are exacerbating a natural desire to hunker down but there are better options
In a world changed by the pandemic and the Ukraine war, new strategies are needed
A period of very slow activity, if not a recession, still seems likely but if growth picks up, rates will have to rise further
Central banks are likely to accept a modestly increased rate of rising prices
A brutal repricing of the global debt markets is nearing completion
Stronger nominal demand will mean stronger earnings and sustainably higher interest rates
Inflation may rise above 9% and stay at that level for much of the year
Central banks to start process of normalising interest rates in 2022
Investors need to watch out for any potential shift in thinking
High valuations indicate investors should look beyond tech and consumer stocks
Given current low expectations, there are opportunities for investors
Investors braced for long-awaited resolution to EU-UK negotiations on their future ties
Investors will be smarting if withdrawal of stimulus knocks all assets at the same time
Virus-induced deflation will soon fade, favouring stocks and inflation-linked bonds
Get set for a reorientation, and perhaps an extension, of asset purchase programmes
Beware the impact of spending pledges from across the UK’s political spectrum
A co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response may be the best fit but with unpredictable consequences
Monetary authorities are unable to counter the potential fallout from economic shocks
A lot needs to go right for equity markets to extend their rebound this year
Portfolios can be tweaked to improve resilience but no single strategy will work
Defensive sectors such as consumer staples a better path than jumping out of equities completely
